Although nationally 60% of Democratic voters are White Americans, in South Carolina, and many other Southern states, POC are the vast majority of Democratic voters - especially Democratic Primary voters. Nationally, over 90% of Republic voters are White Americans, but White Americans in Southern states vote Republic at higher rates than White Americans elsewhere. It is in these states, where there exists a discreet bifurcation between how Whites and non-Whites vote, that African-Americansexcert their greatest influence on the political system of the USofA.
In these states, 20% of their General Election electorate will have a pivotal voice in choosing the Democratic Presidential Candidate. Pivotal as that voice is, it is neither sufficient nor even necessary to becoming the Democratic Presidential Candidate; however, that voice is pivotal in maintaining the demographically diverse Democratic coalition.
Currently, of all the top-tier Democratic Presidential candidates, noneis more dependant on winning South Carolina than VP Joe Biden. Safe to say, if Biden doesn't win SC, his campaign is O-V-A&O-U-T (and not just outta Benja$).Current polls have Binden with a formidable lead amongst traditional SC Democratic Primary voters, primarily due his strong support from African-Americans.Again, AA are the majority of Democratic voters in SC. They are outnumbered 2-1 by White South Carolinians, though.
BTW, There won't be a Republican Presidential Primary in SC in 2020, or in many other states where AA constitute the majority of Democratic voters. That leaves a lot of non-traditionally Democratic voters just sitting around, missing out on the primary fun of the presidential campaign - ukno, kin-fighting. And South Carolina, and many other Southern states, are Open Primary states. This means that as long as one is eligible to voteo in that state, one votes in which ever party's primary one's heart dictates. Did I mention that South Carolina, and many other Red states, have cancelled their 2020 GOP Presidential Primaries?
While it is necessary for Democratic Presidential Primary candidates to appeal to core Democratic Primary voters in Southern Red states, the 2020 political landscape presents opportunities aplenty to expand the Democratic sphere of influence. And by that I mean spending time and $$$$$ in more rural, and Whiter, districts in Southeastern states. Districts that are normally ignored by Democratic candidates during Presidential Primaries in da South, even though, demographically, many of these districts are identical to districts in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Truth be told, this is another aspect of the Democratic party that makes it superior to the Republic party - the need to appeal to everyone from rural Whites in Iowa to urban Blacks in New York, from Hispanics in Florida to Asians in Cali. Republics, on the other hand, are good with just White from wherever. Sad.
The Democratic candidates have spent copious amounts of time and money in rural Iowa and New Hampshire lately. They need to do the same in Southern Red states, especially if any of them wants to blunt Joe Binden's built-in advantage with core Southern Democratic voters.
Face-time and money can go a long way to establishing Democratic strongholds outside of the vibrant Big Cities of the New South. There are literally tens of thousands of votes in these areas that either lean-D or are straightup-D. Such strongholds will expand the Democratic sphere of influence - creating the foundation for successful state-wide elections in states currently dominated by Republics.
There is a danger in pursuing votes in rural Whiter districts in the South that doesn't exist in Iowa and New Hampshire, each having voted Democratic in recent Presidentials. Trump is going to win SC, Alabama(AL) and Mississippi(MS). Bet on it. If you decide to pursue Primary voters in the rural, Whiter districts in these states you need be aware: are you inviting voters into yourparty's Primary who are going to vote for the other party in the General Election, thereby "gaming" your Primary?
Here's an example of how the Democratic Primary can be gamed. Let's say that in SC many Republics decide to vote in the Democratic Primary. As Republic voters in SC far outnumber SC Democratic voters, if enough of them vote for Mayor Butigege in the Democratic Primary they could create turmoil in the Democratic coalition by upsetting the established order - after all, Butigege is about the least popular of the Democrstic Primary Candidates amongst core Democratic Primary voters in SC.
Many other Southern states are like SC: Open Primary states nothaving a
Republic Presidential Primary in 2020. The size of the pool of voters in these states who can "game" the Democratic Primary varies inversely with how contested other Republic Primary races are in any individual state - less contested Primaries create larger pools of potential "gamers". If the SC Democratic Primary gets successfully gamed, it could start a trend throughout the South that could rupture the nascent Democratic coalition of the new South which, in turn, would fractured the national party along the oldest, and most intransigent, fault line of these United States...
Race.
Because, let's face it. If Southern Whites began voting in large numbers in the 2020 Democratic Primaries you can bet your bottom $ that would stir up racial animus all by itself. African-Americans could rightfully view this as a purposely crafted strategy to diminish their greatest influence in the selection of the Democratic Presidential Candidate - especially if Southern Whites voted enmasse for Butigege. As hypothetical as all this might be, Butigege just doing well enough in the South to negatively effect Biden's campaign would be more than enough to disrupt the demographically diverse Democratic coalition. At very little cost to themselves, as they are not having a Presidential primary in 2020, Republics could wreak havoc in Southern Democratic Presidential Primaries.
Be that as it may, the remaining Democratic candidates, save Biden, have little choice but to GOTV amongst non-traditional Democratic voters in the South for reasons other than the fact that the traditionals have Biden's back- no matter what. After all, it's not as if all White people in the South who vote Republic are MAGA-nauts. Most importantly, it's also not as if all White prople in the South actually vote!
Pursuing votes in Southern solid-Red districts during the primaries facilities both the development and dispersement of a diverse Democratic coalition of like-minded people that can mitigate the negative effects of the current Rural-Republic/Urban-Democratic dichotomy that pervades most of the USofA but is more pronounced in the South. This "new"Southern Strategy can, while fraught with the danger of inviting "gamers" into the Democratic Primaries, also act as an inoculant against gamer infection.
Direct exposure to the Democratic candidates and their platforms builds resistance to coagulation of gamers around their preferred candidate because, peeps being peeps, some of these voters will like one of the Democratic Primary Candidates more than the others, other of these voters will like more than one candidates and some of these voters will dislike all of them. In such an environment starting a "whisper campaign" to game a primary will not only be quite difficult, it will also be easily exposed by "race traitors" - ukno, the good White people.
The Democratic party cannot afford to depend entirely on demographic change to ensure its future. By establishing footholds in Red & White districts during the Blue primaries advances the possibility that even SC could be put into play during the Presidential. The Republics are already on the verge of losing GA & TX. FL & NC remain in play. KY & LA show recent signs of deradicalization. AL has a Democratic senator, at least for another year. If just 3% of voters in Red-n-White districts switch to team Blue then currently solid-Red states will start to get da blues - and the world will be a better place.
By courting voters in Red-n-White districts during the primaries, the Democratic Candidates will start the process of bridge-building across deep and steep ravines that, though carved by centuries of conflict and torment, once spanned, they will never again easily separate we da peeps from each other.
A new Democratic coalition in the new South, diverse and strong, can only be a positive force in the continuing struggle to form a more perfect union - ukno, e pluribus unum...
Oh yea, and this strategy also gives any Democratic candidate not named Biden a snowball's chance in hell of doing well in da South. So there's that...